Local Economies and Tourism: What Hosting Fewer Afcon Tournaments Will Mean for Host Countries

Fewer AFCONs, Bigger Budget Questions: Why city finance teams must act now

Municipal treasurers, tourism chiefs and local investors face a sudden reality: AFCON will be staged every four years from 2028 following a December 20, 2025 decision by the Confederation of African Football (Caf). That change removes a recurring source of short-term visitor spikes and event income that many host cities counted on. If your city budget model assumed biennial tournament inflows — hotel levies, event licensing, vendor fees, temporary job income — those assumptions are now stale.

Top-line takeaway (inverted pyramid)

In the short term, host cities should expect a measurable drop in periodic tourism peak revenue and event-linked spending. In the long term, the frequency cut reduces the justification for heavy, repetitive capital spending on stadiums and related infrastructure — and forces a strategic pivot to diversified, year-round economic planning and tighter municipal debt management.

What changed and why it matters in 2026

On December 20, 2025, Caf announced that AFCON will move from a two-year to a four-year cycle starting in 2028. The confederation framed the move as aligning Africa's flagship tournament with global cycles and reducing player calendar congestion. Municipal finance officers cannot treat this purely as a sports governance issue: it alters predictable revenue pulses, investor expectations and the lifecycle calculations for stadiums and transport projects commissioned for recurring tournaments.

“A four-year AFCON cycle shifts the economic calculus of hosting from frequent stimulus to rare, large-scale events — with different fiscal trade-offs.”

Short-term economic effects on host cities (0–24 months)

Expect immediate, measurable changes in municipal cashflows and local business revenue during the next two AFCON cycles.

1. Reduced event income and tourism spikes

• Lower recurring visitor volumes: Hotels, short-stay rentals and airlines will see fewer scheduled surges, reducing annual revenue volatility but also eliminating predictable windfalls.
• Vendor and microbusiness income decline: Street vendors, informal transport operators and small hospitality firms that relied on the biennial spike face income gaps inthe alternate years; consider local case studies like a night market pop-up approach to keep vendors active.
• Smaller sponsorship and licensing cycles: Local sponsorship packages tied to every-other-year exposure are less attractive, compressing short-term marketing revenue for host cities. Look to lessons from event-package sellers when re-packaging rights and exposure offers (event package playbooks).

2. Budgetary stress and cashflow timing

Many municipalities smooth capital projects and operating expenditures around expected event inflows. With those assumptions changing:

• Cashflow misalignments: Seasonal and one-off event fees will shrink, potentially creating operating shortfalls if reserves were not built up.
• Debt service pressure: Cities that issued municipal bonds or negotiated PPP debt assuming frequent tournaments will see their debt-service-to-revenue ratios deteriorate unless they refinance or restructure.

3. Tourism marketing and short-term employment

Tourism departments lose a reliable anchor around which to build marketing campaigns. Short-term job creation tied to tournament logistics—security, catering, transport—will be fewer and more sporadic. Event equipment and logistics contracts (lighting, power, labeling and live-sell kits) become more important to support smaller, frequent events (field gear suppliers).

Medium- to long-term effects (2–15 years)

Over multiple election cycles, the frequency change reshapes capital planning logic, public expectations and investor appetite.

1. Infrastructure ROI and legacy planning

Hosting AFCON biennially gave cities stronger grounds to amortize large stadium investments across frequent events. With longer gaps:

• Lower utilisation risk increases: Stadiums and transport upgrades face longer idle periods between tournaments, raising per-event cost if used only intermittently.
• Repurpose or right-size becomes imperative: Cities will need to prioritize multi-use design, modular seating, and conversion plans to maintain revenue-generating usage.

2. Changed capital prioritization

Reduced tournament frequency frees fiscal headroom for other priorities — if local leaders choose wisely. Instead of building toggled-capacity stadiums, funds could shift toward:

• Year-round tourism infrastructure (museums, trails, business events centres)
• City resilience (drainage, power reliability, public transport that serves daily commuters)
• Maintenance reserves to prevent “white elephant” decay

3. Investment signals to private sector and lenders

Private investors and creditors will update their risk models. Expect higher due diligence costs, less appetite for stadium-backed financing, and demands for stricter covenants when municipalities borrow against expected event income. Consider new revenue models and recurring programming rather than single large bets—example tactics include experiential programming and smaller recurring activations.

Sector-specific impact: tourism, hospitality, small business and transport

Tourism operators and hotels

Hotels that expanded capacity for biennial AFCON demand may see longer payback periods. However, there are mixed silver linings:

• Reduced seasonality: Less frequent peaks can mean steadier, more predictable year-round occupancy targets with smarter yield management.
• Marketing refocus: Cities should reallocate marketing budgets from event-centric campaigns to diversified packages (eco-tourism, cultural festivals, MICE business), and lean into strategies showing why micro-events and pop-ups can drive off-peak occupancy.

Small businesses and informal sector

Street vendors and short-term contractors lose predictable spikes. Municipalities that relied on festival-style trading should plan transition support, including low-cost digital marketplaces or pop-up permits for off-season events; advanced inventory and pop-up strategies can help microbusinesses adapt (pop-up inventory tactics).

Transport and logistics

Airlines and intercity transport providers will revisit route economics. Some routes justified by recurring AFCON traffic may be downgraded unless replaced by steady business or leisure travel demand. Prepare for scenario-based route reviews and operational playbooks for unexpected disruptions (disruption management).

Policy and municipal budget planning takeaways (actionable)

Finance teams must move from reactive to proactive. Below are practical steps municipal governments should adopt immediately, in the medium term, and as part of strategic planning.

Immediate (0–6 months)

1. Re-run budget models with the AFCON frequency change as a baseline scenario: remove assumed biennial inflows and test sensitivity to 25–60% revenue shock in event-related line items.
2. Create or top-up a dedicated reserve (event stabilisation or tourism resilience fund) sized to cover 12–24 months of event-linked operating expenditure. Look to alternative community finance models when sizing reserves (reserve sizing frameworks).
3. Audit current event-related contracts (PPPs, sponsorships, naming rights). Insert force-majeure and renegotiation clauses where possible to reflect new revenue timing.
4. Engage stakeholders: Meet hoteliers, transport providers and vendors to map impacts and co-design transitional supports.

Short to medium term (6–36 months)

1. Shift capital plans: Prioritize multi-use, modular and maintenance-friendly projects over single-purpose, high-capacity stadium builds. Consider mixed-use activations such as micro-flash malls and weekend clusters to keep precincts active.
2. Revise tax and fee policy: Replace one-off event exemptions with targeted incentives for year-round investment (e.g., property tax abatements for tourism businesses that increase off-peak occupancy).
3. Develop recurring event calendars: Attract smaller continental tournaments, music festivals, and MICE conferences to fill the gap and maintain vendor income streams. Examples include curated night markets and experiential showpieces (night market examples, experiential showrooms).
4. Strengthen debt management: If refinancing is needed, build covenants that allow revenue variance and include sinking funds for maintenance.

Long term (3–15 years)

1. Institutionalize impact evaluation: Track metrics such as event GDP contribution, hotel occupancy volatility, maintenance backlogs and ROI on public investments.
2. Design adaptive infrastructure: Favor investments that generate daily utility—public transport, digital tourism platforms, cultural venues—over episodic stadium-centric models.
3. Forge regional hosting consortia: Consider multi-city bids or rotating responsibilities across regions to spread cost and maintain visibility.

Practical tools: metrics, scenarios and example checklist

Finance teams should track a compact dashboard of indicators and run three scenario models (Baseline, Reduced Frequency, Shock) every budget cycle.

Core dashboard metrics

• Event-linked tax revenue: hotel levies, sales taxes, vendor licenses (monthly and annualized)
• Hotel occupancy and ADR: Average daily rate and occupancy seasonality
• Stadium utilization rate: events per year and percentage capacity used
• Debt service ratio: debt service as a share of operating revenues
• Maintenance reserve adequacy: estimated vs actual spending on core infrastructure

Scenario templates to run

1. Baseline: Pre-2026 biennial AFCON frequency (for historical comparison)
2. Reduced Frequency: AFCON every four years — adjust event income and sponsorship revenues down 40–70% during the off-cycle years
3. Shock: Combine reduced frequency with external shocks (higher interest rates, tourism slump) to stress test reserves and covenants

Advanced strategies for progressive host cities

Cities that pivot quickly can convert a frequency cut into a competitive advantage.

• Multi-sport and cultural programming: Transform stadium precincts into mixed-use zones—business events centers, markets, and community sports hubs—to increase daily use.
• Digital and hybrid fan experiences: Monetize virtual access, augmented-reality stadium tours and global streaming partnerships to capture non-local revenue even when tournaments are off-cycle.
• Smaller but frequent regional events: Host youth, women’s, and under-age continental tournaments and regional festivals that require less capital but sustain the events ecosystem.
• Tourism product diversification: Invest in cultural routes, culinary trails, and eco-tourism that smooths arrivals across the year.

Regulatory and fiscal policy considerations

Municipalities must review the regulatory levers that interact with event economics.

• Revisit tax expenditures: Any tax waivers or incentives given for repeated AFCON hosting should be re-evaluated; switch from broad exemptions to performance-based incentives tied to year-round objectives.
• Strengthen procurement and PPP terms: Include reuse and conversion clauses for infrastructure and clear performance metrics for private operators.
• Coordinate with central government: Many stadiums and air infrastructure projects involve national budgets. Cities must negotiate maintenance and operating transfers if AFCON-driven revenue declines.

Real-world lessons: case studies and evidence

Across Africa, city governments have long wrestled with the trade-off between spectacular one-off events and sustainable local development. Where biennial event economics were mispriced, the result was either chronic maintenance backlogs or repeated capital overruns. Conversely, cities that prioritized multi-purpose design and created maintenance reserves saw better long-term fiscal outcomes. Use these lessons when updating 2026–2030 municipal plans.

What municipal leaders should tell constituents now

Transparency matters. Communicate that:

• AFCON frequency changes reduce certain event-linked revenues but open opportunity to invest in durable, inclusive projects.
• There will be a review of contracts and budgets, with priority to protect frontline services and local businesses.
• Citizens will be invited to co-design precinct reuses and local events to replace lost activity.

Checklist for municipal action (quick)

• Re-run revenue models with AFCON 4‑year assumption
• Establish/tap stabilization reserves
• Audit event-linked contracts and PPPs
• Prioritize multi-use infrastructure and maintenance funding
• Design a calendar of smaller, regular events to keep businesses busy
• Engage lenders early to renegotiate covenants where needed

Final analysis: risk, opportunity and timing

The move to a four-year AFCON cycle is a structural change, not a temporary shock. It reduces the predictability of event income but also lowers pressure to deliver repeat-capacity megaprojects. Cities that treat this as an opportunity to rebalance budgets toward resilient, year-round assets will emerge fiscally stronger. Those that cling to a now-obsolete biennial model risk higher debt costs, stranded assets and volatile municipal finances.

Call to action

If you are a municipal finance officer, tourism director or local councillor, start by downloading or building the three-scenario model described above and convening a stakeholders’ roundtable within 60 days. For tailored guidance, analysis templates and a municipal checklist adapted to your city’s size and fiscal position, subscribe to paisa.news or contact our policy team to schedule a strategy briefing — plan now to protect revenues and turn AFCON’s new cadence into a catalyst for sustainable local growth.

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